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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JASON CANDLE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TOLEDO91 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#660 BC / 22
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE9
PERFORMANCE9
TALENT34
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT43
CONTINUITY87
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HDUQUESNE—W 49-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HMASSACHUSETTS—W 38-234144+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 41-17763535+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 21-26234242-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HMIAMI (OH)—W 30-20204949-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ABUFFALO—L 15-3093535+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 13-6103838+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HBOWLING GREEN—L 26-41174343-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 29-28211515+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 37-10151111+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20HOHIO—L 7-24115353-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 26AAKRON—L 14-212688+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HPITTSBURGH—W 48-46696262-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL5PERF53RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TUCKER GLEASONQB SERET
★3★38984%-4HELD
6
JOHN ALAN RICHTERQB JURET
★3—5916%+25—
7
KALIEB OSBORNEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
13
JAKE DEHAANQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
RJ JOHNSON IIIQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
17
TREY WHIRLEYQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB14TAL36PERF14RET77ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
CONNOR WALENDZAKRB SERET
★3—8842%-48—
JACQUEZ STUARTRB SERET
★3—7825%0—
SEVAUGHN CLARKRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—7321%-49—
32
WILLIE SHAW IIIRB SERET
★3—5910%+4—
27
DANE NAUMANRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—191%——
11
KRIS PECHACRB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
MIKE DRENNEN IIRB JURET
UNR—00%+38—
22
LUCAS LAROCHERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL48PERF59RET96ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
ANTHONY TORRESTE SERET
★3—9973%+53—
2
JUNIOR VANDEROSS IIIWR SERET
★3—9834%+28—
1
JERJUAN NEWTONWR SERET
★3—9833%+20—
81
ERIC HOLLEY IIIWR SERET
★3—7515%-57—
84
THOMAS ZSIROSWR SERET
★3—628%+24—
14
CC EZIRIMTE SERET
UNR★3529%+29EMERGED
83
JUSTIN STEPHENSTE JURET
★3—519%——
34
CONNOR JONESTE SERET
★3—519%——
5
TERRELL CROSBY JR.WR SEPORTAL · IOWA STATE
★3★3514%—HELD
8
ZY'MARION LANGWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3443%—HELD
3
LARRY STEPHENS IIIWR SERET
★3—422%-17—
13
COOPER RUSKWR SERET
UNR—211%——
86
DONIVON THOMASTE SORET
UNR—151%——
2
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYWR SORET
★3★3130%—HELD
9
JULIAN ALLENWR SORET
★3★370%—HELD
14
TASHI BRACEFULWR SONO SNAPS
★3—70%——
19
DARYL BARNETT JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
JAVION BOSTICWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
88
MARCELLUS CRUTCHFIELDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
BLAKE NELSONTE SORET
★3★200%—FELL
44
TYSEN SMITHTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
12
BRYSON HAMMERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
87
JAVON BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
43
SAM LEETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL30PERF48RET46n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL47TAL49PERF47RET93n=8 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB40TAL38PERF40RET84n=8 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB40TAL43PERF40RET89n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZY'MARION LANGHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TASHI BRACEFULHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAY'QUAN BOSTICHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KALIEB OSBORNEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TRAE GASTONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HYAJAH MILLERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TYSEN SMITHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MICHAEL-ARINZE EZIRIMHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
IBRAHEEM KAMARAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAKE GRIMMHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTHONY DUNN JR.FLORIDA A&MEDGE★3★3
JADARRIUS PERKINSFLORIDACB★3★3
ZEKE BLAKEYOUNGSTOWN STATECBUNR★3
LANCE DIXONWEST VIRGINIALB★4★3
JAKOB JAMESOHIO STATEOT★3★3
ALLEN JONES JR.PRAIRIE VIEW A&MOT★2★3
TERRELL CROSBY JR.IOWA STATEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
VINNY SCIURYTEXAS TECHOL★3★3
RJ DELANCY IIIWISCONSINCB★3★3
DEQUAN FINNBAYLORQB★3★3
PENY BOONEUCFRB★4★4
JALEN RIVENWESTERN ILLINOISDL★3UNR
MICAH KELLYSAMFORDRB★3★3
DREW COVINGTONLOUISVILLELBUNRUNR
QUINYON MITCHELLNFL DRAFT R1CB★3—
DALLAS GANTELIGIBILITY UPLB★4—
ZACHARY FORDELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS17%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#66NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8452COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
711 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR46%46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST89%89th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE