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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGEPRESEASON · NO CHARTED PLAY
BIG TEN|PAT FITZGERALD|—RECORD2-0|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE53 FPIB1G · 2026 SEASON
TALENT
56FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
46%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
3%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-18IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#455 BC / 22
BC RATIO
16%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
No scoring record for this season yet, so there is nothing to compare the win-loss record against.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT68
CONTINUITY46
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT62
CONTINUITY3
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE2 PLAYED · 10 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
26MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
74MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
+48REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 3PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HTOLEDO—W 30-20163939+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 12HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 35-7261212+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 19ANOTRE DAME#3UPCOMING969999-42HARDEST REMAINING TIER
4SEP 26HNEBRASKA—UPCOMING858181-24HARDEST REMAINING TIER
5OCT 3AWISCONSIN—UPCOMING795353+4STILL TO COME
6OCT 10HILLINOIS—UPCOMING646666-9STILL TO COME
7OCT 17HNORTHWESTERN—UPCOMING577070-13HARDEST REMAINING TIER
8OCT 24AUCLA—UPCOMING827373-16HARDEST REMAINING TIER
10NOV 7AMICHIGAN—UPCOMING938282-25HARDEST REMAINING TIER
11NOV 14HWASHINGTON#19UPCOMING837777-20HARDEST REMAINING TIER
12NOV 20HOREGON#6UPCOMING999494-37HARDEST REMAINING TIER
13NOV 28ARUTGERS—UPCOMING664242+15STILL TO COME
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB46TAL74PERF46RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
ALESSIO MILIVOJEVICQB SORET
★3—86100%+25—
2
CAM FANCHERQB SEPORTAL · UCF
★3★300%-24HELD
15
LEO HANNANQB FRRET
★3—00%——
10
KAYD COFFMANQB FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
23
PEYTON BABBITTQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB38TAL64PERF38RET0ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
CAM EDWARDSRB SEPORTAL · UCONN
UNR★39860%+10EMERGED
4
JAZIUN PATTERSONRB SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★37624%-29HELD
21
MARVIS PARRISHRB SONO SNAPS
★3—5113%+6—
32
KENNETH WILLIAMSRB JUPORTAL · NEBRASKA
UNR★363%—EMERGED
7
BRANDON TULLISRB JURET
★3—00%-37—
20
ZION GISTRB FRRET
★3—00%——
44
JAY COYNEFB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
JACE CLARIZIORB FRRET
★3—00%——
33
JAXON MCCAIGRB SORET
★2—00%——
27
DARRIN JONES JR.RB FRRET
★2—00%——
26
CEDRIC WILLIAMS JR.RB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL52PERF52RET80ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
BRENNAN PARACHEKTE JURET
★4—9553%-22—
3
RODNEY BULLARD JR.WR SERET
UNR★39431%+23EMERGED
13
CHRISHON MCCRAYWR SERET
★2★29431%+28HELD
6
FREDRICK MOOREWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★39329%——
31
JAYDEN SAVOURYTE FRRET
★3—8537%——
14
BRYSON WILLIAMSWR FRRET
★3—275%——
8
KK SMITHWR JUPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★3★3275%+22HELD
88
KAI RIOSTE SERET
UNR★3259%—EMERGED
12
CARSON GULKERTE SEPORTAL · FERRIS STATE
UNR★301%——
19
CHARLES TAPLINWR FRRET
★3—00%——
17
BRAYLON COLLIERWR FRRET
★3—00%——
6
FREDRICK MOOREWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%-30FELL
18
JAMEEL GARDNER JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%0—
22
JACK YANACHIKWR JURET
★2—00%——
16
ZACH WASHINGTONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
48
CHARLIE BAKERTE SORET
UNR—00%——
87
JOE CAUDILLTE FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
89
NICK HARDYWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
84
EDDIE WHITINGTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
5
SAMSON GASHWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
85
RAI'SHAWN ELMOREWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
COLIN CHARLESWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
86
ETHAN MELVILLETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL44TAL67PERF44RET43n=8 · 2 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL48TAL60PERF48RET43n=9 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB44TAL77PERF44RET75n=4 · 7 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DB60TAL48PERF60RET20n=6 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COLLIN CAMPBELLHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
SAMSON GASHHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
KAYD COFFMANHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JOEY CAUDILLHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ELI BICKELHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
JACK ZIARKOHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ZACH WASHINGTONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRAYDEN THOMASHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ADAM SHAWHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
KJ DERISOHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREY LISLESOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEEDGEUNR★3
TRE BELLIOWA STATECBUNR★3
BEN MURAWSKIUCONNOT★2★3
CHARLES BRANTLEYMIAMICB★3★3
JAZIUN PATTERSONIOWARB★3★3
ELI COENENILLINOISDLUNR★3
KENNY SOARES JR.NC STATELB★3★3
KK SMITHNOTRE DAMEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT47 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX VANSUMERENUSCDT★4★3
ARMORION SMITHTOLEDOS★3★3
JALEN THOMPSONARIZONA STATEDL★4★3
AYDAN WESTMINNESOTADB★3★3
NICK MARSHINDIANAWR★4★4
AIDAN CHILESNORTHWESTERNQB★4★4
DAVID SANTIAGOKANSASDEUNR★3
DARIUS SNOWTEXASLB★3★3
MAKHI FRAZIEROLE MISSRB★3★3
ADE WILLIENORTH CAROLINADB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES52%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS81%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#45NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8709COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2846 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST20%20th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE